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Nate Silver: Ken's record will never be broken

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Nate Silver: Ken's record will never be broken

Postby rockgolf » Wed May 06, 2015 11:44 am

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Re: Nate Silver: Ken's record will never be broken

Postby grodney » Thu May 07, 2015 4:31 am

That was a fun article. Andy Saunders, the keeper of the "almost frighteningly detailed site Ken Jennings Detailed Statistics", came up with the exact same "1 loss every 47 games" in a post on this very forum in 2008:
viewtopic.php?p=33952#p33952

Interesting that 538 ran a simulation to come up with that, when you can just use the numbers....although I guess the simulation allowed them to see how often the streak ran to 74 games? (538 is super awesome and smart, by the way, so I'm not meaning to question them or their methods.)

Edit: Hmmm, the comments under the article make it pretty clear there wasn't any need for a simulation. Oh well, who doesn't love a good simulation?

(In the post prior to Andy's, I argued that the *reason* Ken lost was that he missed both DD's in the 2nd round, plus missed the FJ, something I calculated would happen only once every 300 games. I don't know for sure if my math was right, but if so, that would paint the "unlucky" side of the streak ending at 74.)
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Re: Nate Silver: Ken's record will never be broken

Postby Ken Jennings » Sat May 09, 2015 1:03 pm

Ha, I totally forgot that 2008 thread, or I would have mentioned it in yesterday's blog post.
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Re: Nate Silver: Ken's record will never be broken

Postby Momma Snider » Tue May 12, 2015 8:48 am

Something I had not realized until reading the latest blog is that you only had 10 games that weren't runaways! That's one of the most amazing parts of the run!
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