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Show me the money, cancelled.

Postby ranjolie » Sat Dec 30, 2006 12:38 pm

I didn't love the show but I thought it had some future.
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Postby WhitePhantom » Sun Dec 31, 2006 10:25 am

I was surprised too, but there was too much dancing and not enough questions.
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Postby themanwho » Sun Dec 31, 2006 11:33 am

WhitePhantom wrote:I was surprised too, but there was too much dancing and not enough questions.


I had the same opinion of Solid Gold.

-M
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Postby WhitePhantom » Sun Dec 31, 2006 6:01 pm

I had to look that up, to show you how young I am.
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Postby cadams35 » Tue Jan 02, 2007 3:21 pm

WhitePhantom wrote:I was surprised too, but there was too much dancing and not enough questions.


That's why I stopped watching it. Me, I'm not suprised that it was canceled.
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Postby jzerocsk » Wed Jan 03, 2007 6:28 am

WhitePhantom wrote:I was surprised too, but there was too much dancing and not enough questions.

And, apparently, not enough "I'm thinking of a number between 1 and 26."
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Postby cadams35 » Wed Jan 03, 2007 3:20 pm

jzerocsk wrote:
WhitePhantom wrote:I was surprised too, but there was too much dancing and not enough questions.

And, apparently, not enough "I'm thinking of a number between 1 and 26."


Actually, no. I like DOND because one, you get to root against the banker, and two, it's luck and not skill, so theoretically a genius could walk away with 1 cent and someone who flunked out of high school win a million.

But 1 vs. 100 is way better.
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Postby IndySOG03 » Thu Jan 04, 2007 8:32 am

cadams35 wrote:Actually, no. I like DOND because one, you get to root against the banker, and two, it's luck and not skill, so theoretically a genius could walk away with 1 cent and someone who flunked out of high school win a million.


That's the thing, though -- it's not all luck. The "Deal or No Deal" decision is a gamble, but mathematics can tell us if the gamble favors the bank or the contestant, so there is some skill involved in deciding which deals you should take. In that respect, it's a lot like poker -- sure, there's luck involved in getting good hands, but the game is based on making sound bets and calling when the odds of your making a good hand are better than the pot odds (and, conversely, making bets that are harder for everyone else to call if they haven't made their hand yet).

For example, let's say you're down to four values: $1; $5; $100; and $1,000,000. The bank offers $100,000. Should you take it? Let's take it mathematically -- there is a 1 in 4 shot that your case has the big prize, and if it does, giving back that $100,000 offer earns you another $900,000, so you're getting 9 to 1 odds on your money. Your reward is much better than your risk, and you should give the money back and keep playing. Now, if the bank offers $333,000 with those same values remaining, your reward odds plummet to 2 to 1, and the gamble isn't worth it -- the deal should be taken.

But there's the rub -- the decision can't be based entirely on logic. These are huge amounts of money involved, more than most contestant's have probably seen at one time in their whole lives. Seeing that large sum being offered to them is very tempting, even if the odds say that they should keep going.

But, yeah, other than that, it's mostly luck.
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Postby econgator » Thu Jan 04, 2007 8:54 am

IndySOG03 wrote:For example, let's say you're down to four values: $1; $5; $100; and $1,000,000. The bank offers $100,000. Should you take it? Let's take it mathematically -- there is a 1 in 4 shot that your case has the big prize, and if it does, giving back that $100,000 offer earns you another $900,000, so you're getting 9 to 1 odds on your money. Your reward is much better than your risk, and you should give the money back and keep playing. Now, if the bank offers $333,000 with those same values remaining, your reward odds plummet to 2 to 1, and the gamble isn't worth it -- the deal should be taken.


This is part of the beauty of the game. Everyone will be different. I know how to calculate the odds (and personally, I'd say that your banker offer is just about dead on -- $100,000 -- for the values up there) and I still wouldn't turn down the offer with what I have left on the board. :)

However, you usually can't just look at a snapshot like this. You need to see what had just happened. I can pretty much guarantee you that if the previous pick was $300,000 and the offer dropped from $167,000, that person would be FAR more likely to take the deal than if they had just pick $75 and the offer jumped from $75,000. DoND is as much about timing as it is about luck.

To me, a huge part of the appeal is the show's simplicity. I also like the personal touches they put in: having the woman's husband who was a soldier in Iraq in videophone the whole time, turning the whole stage green for the girl who loved green, getting Curtis Martin to call the Jets fan. The show just does some really neat stuff. Honestly, I have as much fun trying to figure out the banker's offers (I think I've finally figured out the weightings of the values) and then yelling at him because he's shortchanging the contestant as I do answering questions.
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Postby cadams35 » Thu Jan 04, 2007 3:24 pm

econgator wrote:To me, a huge part of the appeal is the show's simplicity. I also like the personal touches they put in: having the woman's husband who was a soldier in Iraq in videophone the whole time, turning the whole stage green for the girl who loved green, getting Curtis Martin to call the Jets fan. The show just does some really neat stuff. Honestly, I have as much fun trying to figure out the banker's offers (I think I've finally figured out the weightings of the values) and then yelling at him because he's shortchanging the contestant as I do answering questions.


And, for example, last night. They let the girl bungee jump from the ceiling and spank Howie.
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Postby cadams35 » Thu Jan 04, 2007 3:26 pm

IndySOG03 wrote:That's the thing, though -- it's not all luck. The "Deal or No Deal" decision is a gamble, but mathematics can tell us if the gamble favors the bank or the contestant, so there is some skill involved in deciding which deals you should take. In that respect, it's a lot like poker -- sure, there's luck involved in getting good hands, but the game is based on making sound bets and calling when the odds of your making a good hand are better than the pot odds (and, conversely, making bets that are harder for everyone else to call if they haven't made their hand yet).


IndySOG03 wrote:But, yeah, other than that, it's mostly luck.


That's what I meant.

Personally, the banker's offers are easy to predict and are lower than what the mean is at the beginning but get better near the end.
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Postby Queen Eve » Thu Jan 04, 2007 10:25 pm

Im not fantastic at calculating odds and such. In fact, stats/prob is on the edge of my understanding, mathmatically speaking. So I wonder.. does the banker off straight odds on the largest prize? Or does he calculate based on averages of larger prizes?
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Postby econgator » Fri Jan 05, 2007 6:49 am

Queen Eve wrote:Im not fantastic at calculating odds and such. In fact, stats/prob is on the edge of my understanding, mathmatically speaking. So I wonder.. does the banker off straight odds on the largest prize? Or does he calculate based on averages of larger prizes?


It's not even close to the mathematical mean until very late in the game. From my observations, most of the left hand amounts carry a double or triple weight. The banker has stated in his blog on the DoND website that while he does use the computer to get an estimate, he will usually finesse the numbers one way or the other as needed.

So, if your amounts left are: $500,000, $200,000, and $50, the the banker's offer will be approx. $234,000 ($700,050/3). However, if you have $1,000,000, $400,000, $25,000, $100, $50, $0.01 left, the offer would not be the mean of $237,000, but a lot closer to $130,000 ($100 seems to be double weighted and the other two triple-weighted, so the actual divisor is 11, not 6). It's not perfect, but I can consistently get within about $5,000 of his offer.
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Postby IndySOG03 » Fri Jan 05, 2007 10:28 am

A lot of it, I think, depends on the deamenor of the contestant. Let's say a contestant has $50; $200; $75,000; and $1,000,000. If the contestant removes the lower amounts and feels like they're on a roll, the amount would probably be higher than the mean. However, if the big prize goes away, or even the safety net ($75,000 in this case) for that matter, the offer will be less than the mean, especially if losing that amount makes the player nervous about going on.

The banker as an actual person is another neat wrinkle that makes the show work really well. They could've had just had the computer spit out a number, or even have Howie offer the deal (a la Monty Hall), but having an actual banker character does two things. It adds a human foil, a kind of "him vs. me" competition that this format wouldn't otherwise have. The other thing is that it takes a lot of heat off of the host. Howie Mandel has someone to point to with regards to bad deals that might raise the ire of the contestant or, worse, the viewing public -- he's never, ever seen as the bad guy, and can be painted as being on the contestant's side at all times. This means more people like him, and, thus more people will end up watching the show. The setting of the banker is great as well -- by having him silhoeutted and giving him no audible lines, it prevents the need for him to have a personality and eliminates the chance of awkward host-to-judge/co-host banter that has lowered the quality of other gameshows *coughcoughLingocoughcough*.
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Postby dz » Fri Jan 05, 2007 8:01 pm

cadams35 wrote:
jzerocsk wrote:
WhitePhantom wrote:I was surprised too, but there was too much dancing and not enough questions.

And, apparently, not enough "I'm thinking of a number between 1 and 26."


Actually, no. I like DOND because one, you get to root against the banker, and two, it's luck and not skill, so theoretically a genius could walk away with 1 cent and someone who flunked out of high school win a million.

But 1 vs. 100 is way better.


Speaking of math and 1 vs. 100, did anyone see tonight's episode?

If anything could convince you that our schools are failing, it is within this episode...

Question 3 (1 vs 70): "How many six-packs do you need to have 99 bottles of beer on the wall?"
A: More than 15
B: Exactly 15
C: Less than 15

Woman: "Ok, so in a six-pack there are six beers... obviously. So... 10 six packs would be 60 beers... and... twenty six packs would be 120 beers... sooo..."
Bob: "You have 3 helps..."
Woman: "Yeah... well I -- you know this is a weird question and I think the other ones I'm gonna get but you know when there's beer, i don't drink beer so I think i'm gonna... i'm gonna ask -- i need some help."


Ok, so wait a minute. First of all, what does this have to do with beer? Lady, this is math. You really think the object matters? (Are you just covering, I really can't be sure) Change it to lipsticks or Gucci purses then, seriously.

Secondly, you can multiply by 10 and 20, but 15 eludes you? WTF. (I'm getting agitated just living through this again in writing.)

The woman decides to poll the mob about "More than 15". Ok, so I'm expecting the whole studio to light up, right? Wrong. Only 50 of 70. Wow. This just gets more and more amazing.

Woman: "Ok, I need to look for a beer drinker here..."

What??? Wow. All I can say is wow.

Woman: "I'll pick #94"
Bob: {sarcastic) "#94, Do you have any familiarity with beer?"
#94: "Just a tad, just a touch. I went with 'more than 15' because I figure I put 11 and 6 together, that was 66... (shot of woman looking confused) .. plus 6 times 5 was 30 which still puts us at 93 (um, no. try 96), so that's 16 already, so... I know it's over 15."


Huh? Another winning thought process we have here. You couldn't even fake this stuff if you tried. (Plus it was way too early in the game)

Bob: "I'm afraid to go drinking with you."

Word.

Woman finally chooses "A". Hallelujah, but it's not over.

Bob: "Wow. Oh, my goodness. Ladies and gentlemen, a moment of silence. Three maxim models (all of those remaining) got this one wrong. How can that be?"

Ok so that really isn't as surprising as it is funny, and Bob is handling it well. Bob talks to Melanie, #23:

Bob: "Do you not know the song, the beer song?"
Melanie: "Ok, I'm a wine drinker, I'm a red wine drinker. I don't drink beer it makes me bloated!"
Bob: "So how many bottles of wine do you drink on the wall... nevermind."


Hmmm... so apparently everyone who is inept at math uses this excuse?

I would upload this segment to youtube if I could, you really need to see it to believe it. The math crisis in America is very real, and depresses me so. No wonder other countries are beginning to laugh at us.
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Postby TheConfessor » Fri Jan 05, 2007 8:31 pm

dz wrote:Bob: {sarcastic) "#94, Do you have any familiarity with beer?"
#94: "Just a tad, just a touch. I went with 'more than 15' because I figure I put 11 and 6 together, that was 66... (shot of woman looking confused) .. plus 6 times 5 was 30 which still puts us at 93 (um, no. try 96), so that's 16 already, so... I know it's over 15."[/i]

Huh? Another winning thought process we have here. You couldn't even fake this stuff if you tried. (Plus it was way too early in the game).


I'm sorry I missed this episode. I meant to tape it.

As for #94, I can't say since I didn't see it, but his incoherent explanation may have been pure gamesmanship. Mobsters want the contestant to miss the question, so if he sounds as if he doesn't know what he's talking about, the contestant might be inclined to think he is wrong.
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Postby econgator » Fri Jan 05, 2007 9:39 pm

TheConfessor wrote:As for #94, I can't say since I didn't see it, but his incoherent explanation may have been pure gamesmanship. Mobsters want the contestant to miss the question, so if he sounds as if he doesn't know what he's talking about, the contestant might be inclined to think he is wrong.


I know I would definitely try to confuse the hell out of The One if there was a decent amount of money involved, but after the "I don't know, I don't drink beer" statement, it would have taken all my restraint to not turn to the contestant and ask her just how many degrees of stupid she really is.
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Postby ranjolie » Sat Jan 06, 2007 9:32 am

I watched this episode and I was really surprised when she said: I would like to ask the mob.
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Postby cadams35 » Sat Jan 06, 2007 4:17 pm

dz wrote:
cadams35 wrote:
jzerocsk wrote:
WhitePhantom wrote:I was surprised too, but there was too much dancing and not enough questions.

And, apparently, not enough "I'm thinking of a number between 1 and 26."


Actually, no. I like DOND because one, you get to root against the banker, and two, it's luck and not skill, so theoretically a genius could walk away with 1 cent and someone who flunked out of high school win a million.

But 1 vs. 100 is way better.


Speaking of math and 1 vs. 100, did anyone see tonight's episode?

If anything could convince you that our schools are failing, it is within this episode...

Question 3 (1 vs 70): "How many six-packs do you need to have 99 bottles of beer on the wall?"
A: More than 15
B: Exactly 15
C: Less than 15

Woman: "Ok, so in a six-pack there are six beers... obviously. So... 10 six packs would be 60 beers... and... twenty six packs would be 120 beers... sooo..."
Bob: "You have 3 helps..."
Woman: "Yeah... well I -- you know this is a weird question and I think the other ones I'm gonna get but you know when there's beer, i don't drink beer so I think i'm gonna... i'm gonna ask -- i need some help."


Ok, so wait a minute. First of all, what does this have to do with beer? Lady, this is math. You really think the object matters? (Are you just covering, I really can't be sure) Change it to lipsticks or Gucci purses then, seriously.

Secondly, you can multiply by 10 and 20, but 15 eludes you? WTF. (I'm getting agitated just living through this again in writing.)

The woman decides to poll the mob about "More than 15". Ok, so I'm expecting the whole studio to light up, right? Wrong. Only 50 of 70. Wow. This just gets more and more amazing.

Woman: "Ok, I need to look for a beer drinker here..."

What??? Wow. All I can say is wow.

Woman: "I'll pick #94"
Bob: {sarcastic) "#94, Do you have any familiarity with beer?"
#94: "Just a tad, just a touch. I went with 'more than 15' because I figure I put 11 and 6 together, that was 66... (shot of woman looking confused) .. plus 6 times 5 was 30 which still puts us at 93 (um, no. try 96), so that's 16 already, so... I know it's over 15."


Huh? Another winning thought process we have here. You couldn't even fake this stuff if you tried. (Plus it was way too early in the game)

Bob: "I'm afraid to go drinking with you."

Word.

Woman finally chooses "A". Hallelujah, but it's not over.

Bob: "Wow. Oh, my goodness. Ladies and gentlemen, a moment of silence. Three maxim models (all of those remaining) got this one wrong. How can that be?"

Ok so that really isn't as surprising as it is funny, and Bob is handling it well. Bob talks to Melanie, #23:

Bob: "Do you not know the song, the beer song?"
Melanie: "Ok, I'm a wine drinker, I'm a red wine drinker. I don't drink beer it makes me bloated!"
Bob: "So how many bottles of wine do you drink on the wall... nevermind."


Hmmm... so apparently everyone who is inept at math uses this excuse?

I would upload this segment to youtube if I could, you really need to see it to believe it. The math crisis in America is very real, and depresses me so. No wonder other countries are beginning to laugh at us.


I didn't see it either, but I am inclined to believe it. Contestants like that are more likely to make shows than know-it-alls.
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Postby ranjolie » Sat Jan 06, 2007 5:08 pm

She was the perfect contestant: Loud, blonde and surprisingly knew some of the answers. The one she missed was about Conan O'Brien bandleader.
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Postby econgator » Sat Jan 06, 2007 5:15 pm

ranjolie wrote:She was the perfect contestant: Loud, blonde and surprisingly knew some of the answers. The one she missed was about Conan O'Brien bandleader.


I would have had to ask for help on that one, as I don't read Robert E. Howard. :)
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Postby ranjolie » Mon Jan 08, 2007 10:58 am

econgator wrote: I would have had to ask for help on that one, as I don't read Robert E. Howard.

I dunot anderstand (heavy mexican accent).
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Postby MiniBen1 » Mon Jan 08, 2007 12:35 pm

ranjolie wrote:She was the perfect contestant: Loud, blonde and surprisingly knew some of the answers. The one she missed was about Conan O'Brien bandleader.


I couldn't believe she missed that one! I was on my feet screaming the answer at the TV and then laughing when she got it wrong. I tought everyone knew Max played the drums for The Boss!
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Postby ranjolie » Mon Jan 08, 2007 12:45 pm

I knew Max was the bandleader for the Conan O'Brien show, and he plays the drums I didn't know he was Bruce Springsteen drummer, I mean he seems so serious.
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Postby econgator » Mon Jan 08, 2007 2:55 pm

ranjolie wrote:econgator wrote: I would have had to ask for help on that one, as I don't read Robert E. Howard.

I dunot anderstand (heavy mexican accent).


Not sure if you were joking or not, so I'll explain. :)

I figured that the woman's comment about not knowing a math question because she didn't like beer was about on par with my joking comment about me not knowing who the bandleader was because I don't read REH (he's the author of "Conan"). Get it? "Conan" ... Conan O'Brien ... Yeah, I know, it's weak .......
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